Through the first nine months of 2026, Jackson Hole sold more property than it did a year ago, but the mix shifted. Sales are up, prices have softened slightly, and the pipeline of pending deals has thinned heading into winter. Here's what our Q3 numbers show, where the market is holding up, where it's cooling, and what we expect over the next 12 months.
Q3 2026 at a glance
Jan–Sept 2025 | Jan–Sept 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sales | 230 | 244 | +6% |
Dollar volume | $982M | $992M | +1% |
Average sale price | $4.27M | $4.06M | −5% |
The average price dipped mainly because fewer $10M+ sales closed this year, not because typical homes lost value.
South of Town drove the growth
Area | 2025 sales | 2026 sales | Sales change | Volume change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
South of Town | 40 | 55 | +38% | +102% |
Town of Jackson | 93 | 96 | +3% | −4% |
North of Town | 41 | 42 | +2% | −21% |
West of Snake River | 39 | 36 | −8% | −23% |
Teton Village | 17 | 15 | −12% | −21% |
Single-family homes led the way: 133 home sales, up 24%, now 55% of all transactions. Condo and townhome sales fell 15%.
Mid-luxury surged while the top tier cooled
- $3M–$10M sales rose 26%, from 68 to 86.
- $10M+ sales fell 33%, from 27 to 18, with volume down 31%.
- Sales of $5M and up made up 57% of dollar volume, while accounting for just 23% of sales.
A strong September, but a thinner pipeline
Single-family homes | Sept 2025 | Sept 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Homes under contract | 34 | 20 | −41% |
Active home listings | 150 | 125 | −17% |
Homes sold in September | 13 | 21 | +62% |
Median home sale price | $5.04M | $4.95M | −2% |
Median days on market | 98 | 105 | +7% |
Pending sales are the best guide to the next few months, and they point to a quieter winter.
Mortgage rates: no relief forecast for 2027
Rates moved the wrong way this fall. The 30-year fixed reached about 7.56% on October 14, and Fannie Mae's October forecast raised its outlook to 7.4% for the fourth quarter and 7.5% for every quarter of 2027. The Mortgage Bankers Association also expects rates above 7% through 2027.
In Jackson Hole, that matters less than it does elsewhere. Roughly 71% of purchases here are cash. If you're paying cash, higher rates barely touch you, and they keep some competing buyers on the sidelines. If you're financing, don't plan around a rate drop no one is forecasting. Compare adjustable-rate and private-bank jumbo options, and treat a future refinance as a bonus, not the plan.
Why Jackson Hole should hold up better than most markets
- Cash buyers. About 71% of purchases are cash, so rates have less pull here.
- No recession forecast. Fannie Mae kept its 2.5% GDP growth outlook. The slowdown is about rates, not the economy.
- Scarce land. Less than 3% of the valley is privately owned. That scarcity is why outlooks point to a plateau rather than a drop.
Our outlook for the next 12 months
Most likely: fewer closings through winter, with prices flat to slightly softer. Limited supply should keep any decline small.
Most resilient: $3M–$10M homes and cash second-home buyers, who are far less sensitive to rates.
Most exposed: condos and townhomes, and the $10M+ tier, which is already down a third.
Worth watching: the stock market. For our buyers, it drives confidence more than mortgage rates do.
Not everyone sees softening ahead. The Viehman Group's Jackson Hole Report expects continued appreciation across price ranges, especially at the lower end, while noting that limited inventory will slow sales in the second half of 2026.
Speculating or investing?
Financial planner Carl Richards of Behavior Gap draws a useful line between two games that are easy to confuse. Speculating is about price, the short term and excitement. Investing is about value, the long term and patience. Both are fine. Before you buy, it helps to know which one you're playing.
In Jackson Hole, real estate has rewarded the patient version. According to the Viehman Group's 30-year study, valley home values rose roughly elevenfold over three decades, with the Town of Jackson showing the highest appreciation of any area.
Why this winter could be a buyer's window
- Less competition. Homes under contract are down 41% from a year ago.
- Sellers are adjusting. The average price is down 5%, and the median home is taking about 105 days to sell.
- Negotiating room. It's strongest where buyers have pulled back: the $10M+ tier and condos.
- Waiting may not help. Rates are forecast above 7% through 2027, and with under 3% private land, supply won't grow.
For long-term buyers, the $3M–$10M single-family segment, especially in and around the Town of Jackson, combines the fastest growth with the deepest pool of future buyers when it's time to sell.
Let's talk about your plans
The Legacy Group at Jackson Hole Sotheby's International Realty is here to help you read this market and act on it with confidence. If you'd like a walk-through of these numbers for a specific neighborhood or price range, reach out to Emily Church Figenshau, Elizabeth Vance or Josephine Bedford at 307-739-8020 or [email protected].
This article is for general information only and isn't financial, lending or investment advice. Our outlook reflects our own view of the data.
Sources: Jackson Hole Sotheby's International Realty internal statistics as of Oct 13, 2026 (Teton Board of REALTORS MLS Areas 1–10, Jan–Sept 2026 vs. 2025; internal figures exclude commercial leases and fractional units); The Jackson Hole Report (Viehman Group), Q2 and Q3 2026; Fannie Mae October 2026 Housing Forecast; Mortgage Bankers Association October 2026 forecast; Mortgage News Daily. Data compiled from sources deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
